Besides Sony and Matsushita, the Blu-ray's backers include Round Rock, Dell Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., Walt Disney Co., Thomson, (the world's largest supplier of recorded DVDs), Hitachi, Ltd.; LG Electronics Inc.; Mitsubishi Electric Corporation; Pioneer Corporation; Royal Philips Electronics; Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.; Sharp Corporation; TDK Corporation; Thomson; Twentieth Century Fox; and Walt Disney Pictures and Television.

Sony has lots of money and they are aggressive. I would always put my money on Sony.

Yes Sony didn't have the best record with Beta in the consumer market, but it's still used to this day in the broadcast world... Digi Beta that is.... I know blue-ray DVD and HD-DVD have consumers in mind but do you really think the average joe will embrace the technology like the professional market... No.

I think these names have learned their lesson. They know that despite the quality of the product, it has to be affordable to the mainstream to take off. I believe they know that now. I also believe that affordability will come fast, probably faster than before.
L

While I agree they have to go through a cycle I do believe the speed of that cycle will be faster than in the past. Much faster. If you look at the speed that new technology is introduced in relation to the time at which it is generally accepted by it's conumer public, that time span is increasingly shortened. Dual layer dvd will almost be a skipped step on the ladder.

Look at the major advances in medicine, technology and science. The speed at which we make advances farther toward certain cures, the faster our computers are and their incredible capabilities, the deeper we explore space....all show a distinct jump in speed and that speed is multiplied with each new advance. A study of the last hundred years in relation to the last 50, 25, 10, 5 or 6 months I believe shows that relationship.

Hopeful? Well yes of course. Reality? Well I suppose we will see. Yes, the initial decks will be quite costly. So much so that only major companies and developers will purchase them. That is always the way it is. Somebody has to test. However, in order for the blu-ray to take off with a fast solid start against any other competing HD technology these companies have one option....make it available to their target consumer and do so fast.

I don't believe that anyone thought they would see a consumer affordable HD camera either. It wasn't introduced at a price people couldn't pay however. I think we are seeing more of that; products introduced directly for their target level of purchaser instead of being so high priced that they are unatainable.

We'll see. I am sure this timeline is going to unfold rather quickly and we should be able to have an answer in the coming year.

L

"Dual layer dvd will almost be a skipped step on the ladder." Well, actually no, most of the DVD's people buy are and have been DVD-9 for quite some time.

Only about three to five percent of US TV households can actually receive AND watch HDTV right now, but millions more are going out and spending lots and lots of money on very expensive LCD and plasma screens that are not HD at all. There is a tremendous amount of spending required on all sides - consumers, producers, distributors - for HD to become commonplace and right now it is a very small piece of the the pie and there is little incentive to spend that money. 99 percent of TV is junk and who wants to pay extra just to see it with more pixels? Cable and satellite operators aren't excited about using up bandwidth for HD when they know they cannot make any extra money from it - same for TV stations purchasing HD equipment.

Equipment makers are the only ones who stand to make money from the migration to HD; for everyone else it's an expense. Oh, a few of you may make a few extra bucks initially because you convince some clients that your HDV camcorder gives you some sort of edge, but as such camcorcders become more common and clients catch on that for most of them there is no HD distribution, any premiums go by the wayside.

There certainly is a niche, but right now, there is only one question about HD and HDV that has any meaning:

How well does it downconvert to standard definition?